Implications of DES 5YR SNe Dataset for $\Lambda$CDM

Abstract

Dark Energy Survey five-year supernovae data (DES 5YR SNe) in conjunction with Planck CMB and Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) BAO data has detected a strong dynamical dark energy (DE) deviation from the $\Lambda$CDM model.Here we shift the focus of DES data to the pressureless matter sector in the $\Lambda$CDM model by studying the matter density parameter ${\Omega }_m$. Employing primarily frequentist profile likelihoods, supported by complementary Bayesian methods, we demonstrate that ${\Omega }_m$ increases with effective redshift in the DES data up to a point that there is a $2.5\sigma$ discrepancy with Planck. We relax the traditional ${\Omega }_m\le 1$ prior to demonstrate negative DE densities ${\Omega }_m>1$ at the highest effective redshift probed. Nevertheless, the largest discrepancy with Planck occurs for profile likelihoods and posteriors peaked at ${\Omega }_m<1$ in the traditional $\Lambda$CDM regime. Our findings corroborate earlier observations in Pantheon and Pantheon+ datasets with an independent SNe dataset with a higher effective redshift. In an appendix, we confirm that curvature ${\Omega }_k$ decreases with effective redshift disfavouring a flat Universe in higher redshift DES SNe at $>3\sigma$. Our choice of ${\Omega }_k$ prior leads to an underestimation of the tension with a flat Universe.

Comments: Redshift dependent cosmological parameters in DES 5YR SNe; v2 wording improved, reference added; v3 to appear in EPJC, whether frequentist or Bayesian, the result is the same