Tentative sensitivity of future $0\nu \beta \beta$-decay experiments to neutrino masses and Majorana CP phases

Abstract

In the near future, the neutrinoless double-beta ($0\nu \beta \beta$) decay experiments will hopefully reach the sensitivity of a few $\mathrm{meV}$ to the effective neutrino mass $|m_{\beta \beta }^{}|$. In this paper, we tentatively examine the sensitivity of future $0\nu \beta \beta$-decay experiments to neutrino masses and Majorana CP phases by following the Bayesian statistical approach. Provided experimental setups corresponding to the sensitivity of $|m_{\beta \beta }^{}|\simeq 1\mathrm{meV}$, the null observation of $0\nu \beta \beta$ decays in the case of normal neutrino mass ordering leads to a very competitive bound on the lightest neutrino mass $m_1^{}$. Namely, the $95\%$ credible interval turns out to be $1.6\mathrm{meV}\lesssim m_1^{}\lesssim 7.3\mathrm{meV}$ or $0.3\mathrm{meV}\lesssim m_1^{}\lesssim 5.6\mathrm{meV}$ when the uniform prior on $m_1^{}/\mathrm{eV}$ or on ${\log }_{10}^{}(m_1^{}/\mathrm{eV})$ is adopted. Moreover, one of two Majorana CP phases is strictly constrained, i.e., $140^{\circ }\lesssim \rho \lesssim 220^{\circ }$ for both priors of $m_1^{}$. In contrast, if a relatively worse sensitivity of $|m_{\beta \beta }^{}|\simeq 10\mathrm{meV}$ is assumed, the constraint becomes accordingly $0.6\mathrm{meV}\lesssim m_1^{}\lesssim 26\mathrm{meV}$ or $0\lesssim m_1^{}\lesssim 6.1\mathrm{meV}$, while two Majorana CP phases will be essentially unconstrained. In the same statistical framework, the prospects for the determination of neutrino mass ordering and the discrimination between Majorana and Dirac nature of massive neutrinos in the $0\nu \beta \beta$-decay experiments are also discussed. Given the experimental sensitivity of $|m_{\beta \beta }^{}|\simeq 10\mathrm{meV}$ (or $1\mathrm{meV}$), the strength of evidence to exclude the Majorana nature under the null observation of $0\nu \beta \beta$ decays is found to be inconclusive (or strong), no matter which of two priors on $m_1^{}$ is taken.

Comments: 17 pages, 4 figures, more discussions added, matches the published version in JHEP